Five pillars. No black boxes. We want you to understand exactly how your money is managed.
Rule: SPY must be above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
This is the oldest rule in trend following. It simply asks: 'Is the long-term trend up or down?' If the price is below the 200-day average, we assume we are in a bear market and we do not use leverage. This single rule saved investors from the worst of 2000 and 2008.
Rule: The 200-day SMA itself must be rising compared to 20 days ago.
In 2022, the market had several 'bear market rallies' where price jumped above the 200-day average, only to crash again. The Macro Line alone would have triggered a buy. The Secular Slope blocked these buys because the average itself was still falling. This filter is critical for avoiding 'bull traps'.
Rule: VIX must be below 25.
Leverage kills you in volatile markets. When the VIX (Fear Index) is high, daily swings are huge. A 3x leveraged ETF can drop 15% in a single day. We simply step aside. We only engage TURBO mode (3x leverage) when the waters are calm.
Rule: 18 consecutive closes above the 200-day SMA required to re-enter TURBO.
Bottoming is a messy process. Markets often bounce and fail. We wait for 18 days of sustained strength before trusting a new bull market. This lag costs us the first few percent of gains, but saves us from getting chopped up in false bottoms.
Rule: High Yield Bond (HYG) trends must confirm the equity trend.
The bond market is often smarter than the stock market. If stocks are rallying but 'junk bonds' (HYG) are crashing, it means credit is drying up and the rally is likely fake. We use HYG as a final sanity check before committing capital.
Most trading tools are black boxes. When they lose money, you have no idea why — so you panic and quit at exactly the wrong moment.
Alpha Gear is different. Every signal has a reason. Every gear change has a cause. When we move to CASH in a bear market, you will see exactly which pillar triggered it. When we stay in TURBO through a volatile week, you will see exactly why all five conditions were met.
That transparency is not just philosophical. It is practical. The investors who stick to a systematic strategy through the hard years are the ones who understand it. Understanding creates conviction. Conviction prevents panic selling at the bottom.
I built Alpha Gear to understand. I share it so you can too.
"If you want to run these rules yourself, the logic is right here. If you want the signal delivered every Friday with the live dashboard and the reasoning — that is what Alpha Gear is for."